Core assessment: 2026 was supposed to be a “comeback year” for American tourism—three aces stacked together in the form of the World Cup, the nation’s 250th anniversary, and the Route 66 centennial. Yet data from the National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) and the Commerce Department show international arrivals fell 7% year-over-year in July, with overseas visitors declining for multiple consecutive months. Policy barriers, rising costs, and geopolitical factors are offsetting the visitor-attraction effect of major events.
The World Cup’s “Temporary Boost” and Structural Decline
In the summer of 2026, American tourism did receive a brief boost from the World Cup. Travel spending rose 6.2% year-over-year in June to $122.1 billion, the strongest monthly performance in a year. FIFA reported record-high viewership for the tournament.
But the boost did not last. Commerce Department data show that as of July 2026, overseas visitors to the United States were still down 4.7% year-over-year. Total international arrivals in July were approximately 3.1 million, down 7% from July 2025, with air passengers declining 3%.
Alan Fyall, associate dean at the University of Central Florida’s Rosen College of Hospitality Management, put it bluntly: “It was an incredibly well-televised event. The World Cup may not have boosted America’s international visitor numbers, but it very likely stopped them from being worse.”
Policy Barriers: From “Welcome” to “Chilling Effect”
Behind the decline in international visitors is the cumulative effect of a series of policy changes. U.S. Travel Association President Geoff Freeman pointed to lengthy visa interview wait times, rising airfare, tightened immigration policies, tariffs, and travel restrictions on certain countries as collectively creating obstacles to visiting the United States.
The visa bond program is among the most controversial measures. The Trump administration imposed entry bond requirements on visitors from 50 countries, which Freeman said led to an 80% drop in visitors from those nations. “We cannot reach the goal of 100 million visitors under a bond program that discourages travelers,” Freeman told reporters.
The Canadian market shift has been particularly pronounced. Amid Canadian public opposition to Trump’s tariff policies and “annexation” rhetoric, Canadian visits to the U.S. fell 20% in 2025, and Las Vegas visitor numbers dropped 7.5%. Wayne Smith, director of the Hospitality and Tourism Research Institute at Toronto Metropolitan University, noted that Canadians have not stopped flying—”they just aren’t flying to the United States.”
The Political Response
On September 2, President Trump met with executives from major travel companies including American Airlines, Marriott, MGM Resorts, and Carnival at the White House to discuss reversing the decline in international visitors. Trump said the World Cup delivered a “tremendous economic boost” to U.S. host cities.
The U.S. Travel Association has set a goal of 100 million annual inbound visitors, while actual 2025 figures were only 68 million, down 5.5% from 2024. Freeman stated plainly: “Make the United States the most visited destination in the world. Right now, that position belongs to France.” France welcomed a record 102 million foreign visitors in 2025, including 5 million Americans.
Meanwhile, pressure is mounting at the congressional level. On September 16, Senators Cortez Masto, Rosen, and Klobuchar sent a joint letter to Commerce Secretary Lutnick urging the reconvening of the dormant U.S. Travel and Tourism Advisory Board (TTAB). “Policymakers need to hear from industry leaders when making decisions that can have broad economic consequences,” the senators wrote.
Senator Cortez Masto has also backed the VISIT USA Act, which aims to restore Brand USA tourism promotion funding that was cut by 80% in the Republican tax bill.
Global Context: The U.S. as “The Only Exception”
America’s decline stands in sharp contrast to the overall trajectory of global tourism. The latest UN Tourism World Tourism Barometer, released September 17, revised its 2026 global international arrivals growth forecast down from 3%-4% to 1%-2%, mainly due to Middle East conflicts and rising travel costs.
In the first half of 2026, global international arrivals grew just 0.4%, with approximately 690 million cross-border trips. The first quarter grew 2%, the second quarter turned to a 1% decline, and the decline widened to 3% in June. The Middle East, directly affected by conflict, saw international arrivals fall 22%.
Yet even against a backdrop of slowing global growth, the U.S. performance remains anomalous among major economies. A World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) report shows that among 184 countries analyzed, the United States is the only one where international visitor spending is forecast to post negative growth in 2025. U.S. international tourism revenue in 2025 is projected at slightly under $169 billion**, roughly **$12.5 billion less than the previous year.
Brand USA launched two initiatives in May—”Get Facts. Get Going.” and “American Originals.” The former aims to provide international travelers with accurate entry policy information in response to misinformation on social media; the latter focuses on American cultural storytelling, with initial content covering Monument Valley, Memphis, Texas, and New York.
